Policy writings and publications

St. Louis Fed Economic Synopses

  1. What are the Fiscal Costs of a (Great) Recession?, Economic Synopsis, 2018, No. 22
          Less technical summary here

  2. Rising Interest Rates, the Deficit, and Public Debt, Economic Synopsis, 2018, No. 28

  3. Can Countercyclical Capital Buffers Help Prevent a Financial Crisis?, Economic Synopsis, 2019, No. 15
           Less technical summaries here and here

  4. Fiscal Policy and COVID-19: Insights from a Quantitative Model, Economic Synopsis, 2020, No. 8

  5. Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock?, Economic Synopsis, 2020, No. 31 (w./ Pedro Brinca and Joao B. Duarte)

  6. Mortgage Forbearance and Economic Recovery from the Pandemic, Economic Synopsis, 2021, No. 19 (w/ Olivia Wilkinson)

  7. The COVID Retirement Boom, Economic Synopsis, 2021, No. 25
           Selected Media Mentions: Barron’s, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, Axios, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal
          Another summary here

  8. Asset Returns and Labor Force Participation During COVID-19, Economic Synopsis, 2022, No. 1
           Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg

  9. Loan Evergreening: Recent Evidence from the U.S., Economic Synopsis, 2022, No. 26 (w/ Pascal Paul and Juan M. Sanchez)

  10. Commercial Real Estate: Where Are the Financial Risks?, Economic Synopsis, 2023, No. 22 (w/ Sam Jordan-Wood)

St. Louis Fed Blog Posts

  1. The cost of owing, FRED Blog, March 2018
  2. Paying interest on excess reserves, FRED Blog, June 2018 (w/ Asha Bharadwaj)
  3. How Risky are Government Intervention Programs?, On the Economy Blog, August 2018
  4. Fed Payments to Treasury and Rising Interest Rates, On the Economy Blog, September 2018
  5. Domestic Debt Before and After the Great Recession, On the Economy Blog, October 2018
  6. Is the financial sector becoming more productive?, FRED Blog, March 2019 (w/ Asha Bharadwaj)
  7. Are firms too attached to bonds?, FRED Blog, July 2019 (w/ Asha Bharadwaj)
  8. Corporate Debt Since the Great Recession, On the Economy Blog, August 2019 (w/ Asha Bharadwaj)
  9. Gauging returns and risk in the bond market, FRED Blog, September 2019 (w/ Asha Bharadwaj)
  10. Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate, On the Economy Blog, March 2020
          Selected Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal, NBC News, Financial Times, New York Times Opinion, Washington Post Opinion, The Economist, Politico, National Review, CBS News, Vox, The Atlantic, The New Yorker, Fox Business, FiveThirtyEight, Der Spiegel
  11. Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic, On the Economy Blog, April 2020 (w/ Mahdi Ebsim and Julian Kozlowski)
  12. Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II, On the Economy Blog, April 2020 (w/ Mahdi Ebsim and Julian Kozlowski)
  13. Household Debt meets Corporate Debt, FRED Blog, April 2020 (w/ Asha Bharadwaj)
  14. Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic III, On the Economy Blog, May 2020 (w/ Mahdi Ebsim and Julian Kozlowski)
  15. Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV, On the Economy Blog, June 2020 (w/ Mahdi Ebsim and Julian Kozlowski)
  16. The Effects of Extra Unemployment Benefits on Household Delinquencies, On the Economy Blog, August 2020 (w/ Asha Bharadwaj)
  17. Credit Spreads during the Financial Crisis and COVID-19, On the Economy Blog, February 2021 (w/ Mahdi Ebsim and Julian Kozlowski)
  18. Domestic Debt Before and After the Pandemic Recession, On the Economy Blog, September 2021
  19. The Comovement between Credit Spreads, Corporate Debt and Liquid Assets in Recent Crises, On the Economy Blog, November 2021 (w/ Julian Kozlowski and Sam Jordan-Wood)
  20. The Evolution of Household Net Worth during COVID-19, On the Economy Blog, November 2021 (w/ Ramon Silvera Zumaran)
  21. The declining labor force, FRED Blog, March 2022 (w/ Devin Werner)
  22. The dollar and euro exchange rates break even, FRED Blog, August 2022 (w/ Sam Jordan-Wood)
  23. Real returns on major asset classes since the start of the pandemic, FRED blog, October 2022
  24. Retirements, Net Worth, and the Fall and Rise of Labor Force Participation, On the Economy Blog, January 2023 (w/ Sam Jordan-Wood)
  25. Excess Retirements Continue despite Ebbing COVID-19 Pandemic, On the Economy Blog, June 2023 (w/ Sam Jordan-Wood)
          Media Coverage: MNI, Investopedia
  26. Federal Reserve remittances to the US Treasury, FRED Blog, November 2023 (w/ Sam Jordan-Wood)
  27. The Fed’s Remittances to the Treasury: Explaining the ‘Deferred Asset’, On the Economy Blog, November 2023 (w/ Sam Jordan-Wood)
          Media Coverage: Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Turkish State Media

Other

  1. Rising Rates Impact Borrowing Costs for the U.S. Government, Too, The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2018 (w./ A. Bharadwaj)
          Less technical summary here

  2. Fiscal Policy and Inequality, Economic Education workshop for high school and college teachers

  3. Fiscal Policy and Inequality, Timely Topics Podcast, September 2018

  4. Spillovers 13 (Banco de Portugal), Comments on two articles published by Banco de Portugal economists, January 2020

  5. Open Vault Blog: Debt-to-GDP Ratio, October 2020

  6. St. Louis Fed Annual Report 2020: Crises in Corporate Debt Markets, March 2021 (w./ J. Kozlowski)

  7. A Quantitative Analysis of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer, SUERF Policy Brief, August 2021

  8. Retirements Increased During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Who Retired and Why?, Timely Topics Podcast, March 2022
           Media Coverage: Forbes

  9. Do Banks Lend to Distressed Firms?, FRB San Francisco Economic Letter, November 2023 (w./ Pascal Paul and Juan M. Sanchez)